Monday, April 11, 2011

Optima Central Division Dashboard - Relief Pitchers

This is part 2 of my series to look at the NL Central via a dashboard view.  The WARP below is based on the April 3 PECOTA forecast.  In part 1 we looked at the position players where the Reds are behind the Cardinals by just over 4.5 wins.  When we look at relievers the world returns to its natural order with the Reds clearly dominating.



The results are sorted by WARP for each pitcher in pen.  So the 1 column is the highest pitcher by WARP and the 2 column is the second highest in WARP.   This rank order view allows you to see how deep the pens are.  Overall the bullpens are expected to be a net loser versus replacement level driven by the two bad relief staffs of the Astros and Cardinals.    

Some notes on this chart:
  • The Reds show the deepest bullpen having the most valuable reliever at every rank 1 through 6.  Chapman (Reds Reliever 1) includes some starts but I think that is OK as one job of the bullpen is be backup starters and having a potential Cy Young level starter in your pen has value.
  • It is heartening to see how the Reds gain 3.7 wins on the Cardinals in the pen.  Should be fun to tune into the latter innings of Cardinals games this year.  Ryan Franklin has done his part to help the Cardinals live down to this projection.  
  • The Astros are terrible.
I will post part 3 on starters in the next few days.

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