Reds as NL Central Favorites

The final PECOTA projected records are up at Baseball Prospectus.  Here are the  projected standings:

Cardinals 86-76

Brewers 85-77

Reds 82-80

Cubs 79-83

Pirates 71-91

Astros 65-97

 

As you can see this means the Reds need to close 4 games on the Cardinals and 3 on the Brewers in the Division.   Variance gives the Reds a chance but I want the Reds to be favorites.  So I have made a few adjustments as outlined below that seem quite reasonable to make the standings more "realistic".

Reds 84-78 (+2 Win) 

• +.5 Gomes - PECOTA depth charts for some reason have Alonso as the primary left fielder and Gomes as a pinch hitter.  Alonso is worth only .3 wins in 335 PA.  Gomes is projected to be worth .5 wins in 167 PA.  So we gain a half win if Gomes doubles up to the 335 PA that Alonso is projecting.
• +.5 Ondrusek - Logan Ondrusek is projecting -.6 WARP.  If he is that bad he'll be sent down and replaced by a replacement level pitcher. That is good for half of a win.
• +1 Opening Day - We should have lost that game yesterday.  Took a career hit out of Hernandez to win.  So let's count that as one we stole from the Brewers off the top.

 

Cardinals 83-79 (-3 wins)

• -2 Berkman - Berkman is projecting 2.8 wins in Right Field.  There is a good chance he'll fail in the outfield.  His replacements, John Jay and Allen Craig, are near replacement.  Pujols may be good enough to hold off Berkman from stealing any playing time at first.  So I'll count that as two wins less for the Cardinals.
•   -.5 Rasmus - You can count on Tony LaRussa's to make some questionable playing time choices.  I translate this as Rasmus won't get to the 679 PAs that he is projected to PECOTA.  Rasmus projects to 1.7 WARP. I'll say that is a half win too high.
• -.5 Holliday - Holliday had an appendectomy today.  He is setup for 4.2 WARP.  I think we can cut .5 wins off of that for time off and return to full health.

Brewers 83-79 (-2 wins)

• -1 Opening Day - As explained in Reds section above.
• -1 Starters - PECOTA shows every Brewer starter at 28-29 games started.  That is a lot of health for a team that already is down Greinke.  I'm going to count them -1 as their 6,7 starters are replacement at best.