How big of a step back are the Reds taking in 2014? - Part 2 Pitchers

   In this post I will continue to look at the size of the expected drop off for the Reds between 2013 and 2014.  In my last post I looked at position players.  Now I look at the pitching.

Starters:

                Here is a chart of the actual results and Fan Graphs WAR for the Reds Rotation in 2013 versus their 2014 Steamer Projections also available on fangraphs.  

 

The 2014 Reds top 5 pitchers project to lose 2 WAR in 30 less start.   Given how much risk there is in pitcher health this is reasonable.  This means we also need to look at our 6^th and 7^th starters.    The good news in Reds #1 Prospect Robert Stephenson should be ready by mid-season to step in to the rotation if there is a need to replace an injured starter.    There is also newly acquired David Holmberg who seems to be ready to join the back end of the rotation but I would not count on him for more than replacement level in 2014.  

 Stephenson gives the Reds similar depth as we had in 2014 with Cingrani as the 6^th starter.  If the Reds go beyond our Stephenson they we will be into replacement level pitchers.   Overall I’d call it even versus 2014 with a risk that we will have to turn to replacement level starters if we get more than one injury in the rotation.    This is risk shared by just about every major league team.

Relievers:

                The Reds relievers in 2013 delivered 2 wins above replacement as a group.  Chapman was good for 1.6 wins and Parch was worth -1 wins with everyone else going about .5 to -.5 wins.   The bullpen looks pretty much the same taking out Broxton leaving and Marshall coming back. 

                Steamer has Chapman losing about a half win to be 1.2 wins in 2014.  Steamer has Marshall at .3 wins which would be a good improvement over Broxton’s -.4 wins in 2014.  I think everyone else can put in the same around replacement level performances to give the Reds another 2 win bull pen in 2014.

Overall Pitching:

                The pitching overall seems to be even against 2014.  The main risk seems to be the depth of the starting rotation.   Stephenson should help around mid-year but if we suffer injuries early or 2 injuries later we will have more replacement level starts than 2013.   

                Next post I’ll pull the position players, pitchers, and other odds and ends together to look at the total picture.

 

 

How big of a step back are the Reds taking in 2014? - Part 1 Position Players

Over the winter I have read many words on how big a step back the Reds are taking in 2014.  Most of the analysis is based on the loss of Shin-Soo Choo in Center Field.  Let's look beyond Center Field to get a complete picture.  I'll use the Reds 2014 Steamer projections available on Fangraphs  to get a sense of how big of a drop off we should be expecting.    I will look first at the position players then the pitchers in a future post.

1B Joey Votto:  (-.5 to -1 Wins)

Last year Joey played in 162 games and was worth 6.2 WAR.   Steamer has him hitting for a .400 wOBA which is exactly the same as 2013.   Steamer has him at 5 wins only playing 138 games.  Given Votto is not Cal Ripken I assume the Reds will lose .5 to 1 WAR at First due to injury.

2B Brandon Phillips:  (Even)

You would not know it with his 103 RBIs but Brandon has been in a three year decline offensively.   He was worth 2.6 WAR in 2013 making up for below average hitting with above average defense.  Steamer says he’ll bounce back to league average on offense which sounds reasonable but his defense takes a hit to offset the gain and end up with 2.5 WAR.  This sounds reasonable and so I’ll put him as even.

SS Zach Cozart: (Even)

In 2013 Cozart was worth 2.1 wins.  In 2014 Steamer has him at 2.2 WAR.  He is 28 to start the 2014 season so no reason to predict anything but the same production.

3B Todd Frazier (Even)

Todd Frazier was a league average hitter in 2013 putting up a 100 wRC+.  Thanks to good defense this was enough for 3.3 WAR.    Steamer has him at 2.6 wins in 118 games but I see no reason he won’t play 150 games again if he can be worth 3 wins.  I’d call him even in 2013.

C Devin Mesoraco (+1.5 wins)

In 103 games last year Mesoraco was worth .4 wins.  Steamer has him this year 2.2 wins in 118 games.  He should play even more games now that Hanigan is gone.  Hanigan was replacement level and Brayan Pena should be also.  So I’ll put this down as 1.5 win gain.

LF Ryan Ludwick / Chris Heisey (+1.5 wins)

Lf was a disaster in 2013.  Heisey was worth 1.2 wins.  Ludwick worth almost -1 win.  Paul/Robinson both were right about replacement level.   So let’s call the Reds left field in 2013 replacement level.   Steamer has Heisey about the same at 1 win in 60 games.    Steamer has Ludwick at .5 wins in 118 games which seems like a reasonable bounce back for him.  So I’ll call this a 1.5 win gain in Left Field.

CF Billy Hamilton (-3 to -4 wins)

Here is the big drop off.  Choo was worth 5.2 wins in 2013.  Steamer has Hamilton in 135 games playing to 1 win.    It has him at a 77 WRC+ while paying a league average CF and adding 3.1 runs on the basepaths.    I’d give him two wins by upping his contribution on the basepaths and playing more games.  So I’ll put this down as a 3-4 win drop off.   One thing to note on Choo is Steamer has him at 3 wins in 2014 due to regression.  So while this is a big drop off probably 1-2 wins of drop off should have been projected in even if he stayed.

RF Jay Bruce (Even)

Jay Bruce is known for being steady. He played 160 games with a WRC+ of 117 and 4.1 wins in 2013.  Steamer has him at a 122 WRC+ in 2014 worth 3 wins in 133 games.  Given Jay has played over 150 games the last three years I’m going to push his 2014 projection up to 4 wins.  I’d say he lives up to his reputation with another steady season.

Overall Position Players:

We lose three to five wins from center and not counting on Votto to play 162 games.    But the good news is the Reds Catching and Left Field situations were so bad in 2013 that just getting to below average at both positions will give the Reds a significant gain to offset the losses.    Based on this analysis I’d put the Reds as projecting 1-2 games worse on the position player side of the team.    

We’ll look at the Reds pitching in the next post.

Why Joey Votto is the best First Baseman in Basebal

                Last week I wrote about Joey Votto's streak of avoiding pop outs which has continued for five more games since I wrote that post (187 games across 2010/2011).  I recently read an article by Mike Axisa on Rotographs where he made an argument that Pujols was still the best first baseman and Votto was a close 2nd.  Mike was evaluating from a fantasy baseball perspective so he is not necessarily saying who is the best player but who is the best fantasy player.  But as a Reds fan anytime a Cardinal is found to be better than a Red I feel a fundamental law of the universe has been broken. So I am going to look deeper in the stats to find the inevitable truth that Joey Votto is the best first baseman in baseball.

                There are two other first basemen who have the honor of even being mentioned in the same sentence as Votto when talking about best first basemen, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.  I'm going to look just at hitting since that is what makes a great first baseman.  We'll look at 3 layers of performance. We will look first at end results, then batted balls, and finally the at the plate.  That should give us a full picture of what these three stars do and how they do it. 

The Results

                First let's start with a chart of the three players on a total offensive statistic.  Let's use WOBA from FanGraphs.  Even if you don't know what wOBA is (Here is an explanation) you can see all three players are firmly in the good range.  Pujols has been the best for a long time but in 2010 and 2011 he has been passed up.  Votto last year had a year comparable to the early 2000 Pujols and seems to be sustaining it in 2011.  So even if Pujols bounces back they are close.  Cabrera had his best year last year but just does not seem to be able to reach the same level Pujols and Votto have.  

The ZiPS projection for the remainder of the season also has Votto slightly on top.

Votto - 416 wOBA (310/409/549)

Pujols - 410 wOBA (305/408/563)

Cabrera - 409 wOBA (304/398/560)

Batted Ball

                One level deeper than results is what do they do when they make contact.  From the table below we see that Votto tends to be more of a line drive hitter.  All three have great HR/FB ratios in the 19-20% range versus a league average of 10.5%.  But given Cabrera/Pujols will hit more fly balls they will hit more home runs while Votto is the better pure hitter with his high line drive rate. Couple this table with the fact that Votto never pops out we have to give the edge to Votto for the quality of his hits when he makes contact.

		LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB
Votto	2010	20.0%	45.2%	34.8%	25.0%
	2011	27.8%	42.6%	29.6%	15.6%
	Career	22.9%	42.2%	34.9%	19.6%
Cabrera	2010	18.9%	39.3%	41.7%	19.8%
	2011	19.6%	47.3%	33.0%	18.9%
	Career	21.1%	41.6%	37.3%	18.4%
Pujols	2010	17.2%	38.3%	44.5%	18.3%
	2011	14.9%	50.7%	34.3%	15.2%
	Career	19.1%	40.8%	40.1%	19.8%

Pitch by Pitch

                The final look is what happens at the plate.  The first chart is looking at plate discipline.  This chart shows a pretty clear order with Pujols the most patient, Cabrera the least, with Votto in the middle.  Votto and Cabrera actually swing more than league average (45.6% in 2010).   One other interesting thing is of the three it seems the league is most willing to throw to Pujols probably because he chases outside so rarely.

		O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	Zone%
Votto	2010	29.9%	72.9%	47.9%	41.8%
	2011	26.1%	65.7%	42.7%	41.9%
	Career	26.8%	72.7%	47.5%	45.2%
Cabrera	2010	32.7%	74.1%	50.2%	42.4%
	2011	29.2%	73.7%	46.9%	39.8%
	Career	28.0%	70.7%	49.1%	49.5%
Pujols	2010	27.5%	63.0%	43.2%	44.2%
	2011	21.3%	61.2%	40.1%	47.3%
	Career	20.3%	65.3%	42.2%	48.8%

O-Swing% - % of time swing at pitch outside strike zone.

Z-Swing% - % of time swing at pitch inside strike zone.

Swing% - % of time swing at pitch

Zone% - % of pitches in strike zone.

                The final thing to look at is contact rates when they do swing.  If you were wondering what makes Pujols special I think we found it.  He is making contact far more often and in fact he is in the top 25 in MLB over 2010/2011 in contact %.  Votto and Cabrera are both a bit below average (80.7% in 2010) in contact %.   

		O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	SwStr%
Votto	2010	69.4%	82.4%	77.7%	10.4%
	2011	69.5%	86.1%	80.2%	8.3%
	Career	62.9%	83.7%	77.3%	10.4%
Cabrera	2010	67.6%	86.0%	79.1%	9.6%
	2011	78.8%	84.2%	82.2%	7.6%
	Career	59.0%	86.1%	78.3%	10.2%
Pujols	2010	76.0%	90.6%	85.4%	5.8%
	2011	84.9%	91.2%	89.4%	3.9%
	Career	84.9%	92.1%	86.1%	5.6%

Summary

                From what we have seen here Pujols has contact skills that make him stand out from the other two.  Votto has better results when he does make contact.  All three will knock it out of the park 20% of the time they hit a fly ball.  Overall these are three great players who have very close skill levels.  The overall results seem to say that Votto's ability to hit the ball with quality are leading to slightly better results than Pujols approach so I give the overall race to Votto by a nose over Pujols with Cabrera not a far third.